Having finally gotten over the snub of King Kong in all major categories, I’ve collected myself, seen almost every movie, and here’s who I think is bringing home hardware:
Supporting Actress: This one’s between Rachel Wiesz and Michelle Williams, but this category tends to skew away from the big winners of the night (this year it’s Brokeback) and awards the random ones. I saw Junebug the other night, and Amy Adams is awesome in that movie. I wouldn’t be upset if she won at all, but look for Rachel Weisz to bring it home.
Supporting Actor: This one’s all Clooney, who’s going to win for Syriana. But this’ll be the only trophy Clooney sees tonight.
Actress: Reese seems to have this one locked up, but don’t be surprised if Felicity Huffman pulls an upset. After all, she did wear a prosthetic penis that actually peed on camera – the Academy loves that!
Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman is a lock. And Capote’s a damn good movie, too.
Original Screenplay: No one understands Syriana, and Good Night and Good Luck is basically a college thesis on Murrow where 75% is actual transcripts. I hate to say it, but this one’s going to Paul Haggis’ Crash.
Adapted Screenplay: Brokeback.
Director: Ang Lee for Brokeback
Picture: King Kong. But in case that doesn’t work out, I’ll say…um… Brokeback.
Oscar Surprises: Jon Stewart will be funny, celebrities will look glamorous, and there will be 40-50 gay-themed jokes, each of which will be side-splittingly hilarious (that’s Bruce Villanch’s bread and butter). Oh, and a couple cracks about Cheney shooting people.